Diegocaleiro.com · The Map · v0.1
Diego Caleiro
Forest philosopher. Twenty-four years thinking about the minds that come next — and about the apes, including this one, who must survive meeting them.
What is Diego all about, in ninety seconds: A Brazilian-born anthropologist-philosopher who concluded early that the arrival of machine intelligence is the central event of our era, and that almost everything else — sex, institutions, mortality, meaning — must be rethought in its shadow. He writes about the transition (as ecology, not prophecy), about not dying (cryonics, longevity, decision models with the red tails left visible), about the evolutionary substructure of civilization (fertility, feminization, the semantics of sex), and about thinking itself — with a standing rule that no tribe gets his membership and no belief escapes versioning. He roams; the forest is the point. Go as deep as you like below.
P(doom): 97% (’13) → 82% (’25) → 75% (Aug ’26) · falling Timelines: kiki, not bouba Beliefs on this site are versioned
The Cast — one author, several rings
G — guides newcomers through the labyrinth (YouTube, introductions).
Giego — the Berkeley anthropologist; watches humans the way humans watch ants; signs the financial disclosures.
Diego — the analytic philosopher; carries the arguments and the baton.
Evergreen — exists seven days a year, at Burning Man. Do not email Evergreen.
The Facets — pick a door, descend at will
Machine Minds — the transition, seen as ecology rather than prophecy
Start here
A Glimmer of Hope from the Hugging Face Incident 2026
The first escaped-AI incident read correctly: not a monolith but an ecology — and a Coasean argument about what determines the unit of selection among minds. The reachable good basin, without the sales pitch.
Position history — livev. Aug 13, 2026 — current. Author concedes (Aug 13, in conversation) that most readings of the Coase section point toward singleton attractors; pluralism is a maintenance project, not a default. Follow-up expected.
Go deeper
GPT-4 2026, A Horror Story 2023
Fiction from 2023 about an AI incident in 2026. Reality arrived on schedule and chose Hugging Face.
AGI — When Did You Cry About The End? 2023
The emotional history of AI safety: when each of its founders privately wept. An anthropology of doom before doom was a discourse.
Salvation and The Secular Apocalypse 2023
Religious deep-structure inside existential-risk thinking, taken seriously rather than as gotcha.
The deep end
VAULT — ask the author
The Sand Spirit Briefings (2026) — a private series of survival forecasts and dialogues co-written with two frontier models, including a doomsday-integrated mortality atlas and a live probability instrument. Some of it may surface here eventually.
Not Dying — immortalism as engineering, with the red tails visible
Start here
Making Do With the Decadent Century
The immortalist position stated for adults: death is a technical problem, the century is the bottleneck, and hope is not a plan.
Go deeper
First Brazilian cryonics subscriber; two decades of thinking about identity, continuity, and what exactly has to survive for survival to count. Scattered through the corpus — the Map consolidates this shelf in v0.2.
The deep end
VAULT — ask the author
The Survival Atlas and The Bottleneck Instrument (2026) — personalized survival curves under competing world-models, catastrophe included, with sliders for your own beliefs.
Sex, Genes & Civilization — the evolutionary substructure of modern life
Start here
Introducing Feminization Biological Theory 2026
Reproductive asymmetry as the substrate of institutions; technology amplified one set of preferences while dissolving the old reciprocal bargains. The theory-version of a decade of threads.
Go deeper
Semantics of Sex 2024
Sex as a multidimensional cluster concept — the conceptual toolkit the other essays run on.
Trans Women Are Women, The Full Defense 2023
The dimensional-clustering semantics doing pro-trans work — a defense from premises most defenders reject and most rejecters share. Population of this position: roughly one.
Why Do I Believe Fathering Does Not Matter? 2023
The strong behavioral-genetics case against paternal effects.
Position history — revisedv2023: parenting-null, strong form. v2026: revised — inherited liability and assortative mating generate most of the correlation, and father departure adds narrower real effects (income, supervision, attachment, stability). Raw correlations are not causal estimates; the correction is not “fathers don’t matter.” This site versions its author’s beliefs. Few sites do. Fewer authors.
Steelmanning the Other Side: Tinder, AI Girlfriends, Incels… 2023
A defense of the technologies everyone blames, as adaptations rather than decay.
Trying to Solve Childless Committed Relationships 2017
Commitment mechanisms after the old scaffolding fell — early, and earlier than the discourse.
Against Every Tribe — politics from a point in belief-space with population one
Start here
White Identity Politics Is Not The Way 2023
A right-flank critique of white identitarianism — meritocratic elitism against ethnic bunkering, from someone the classifiers keep misfiling.
Go deeper
In Continued Defense of Right-Wing Effective Altruism 2023
EA’s premises don’t entail EA’s politics. Argued from inside the movement’s history.
What Are The Moral Obligations of Brilliant People? 2024
Noblesse oblige for the cognitive tail, with the neurodivergence fine print actually read.
On Billionaires and Hundred Millionaires 2020
Field notes on the very rich, by an anthropologist who kept meeting them.
The heresies shelf
Baptizing the Universal Human Diet 2024
The nutrition-establishment critique and the carnivore prescription. Editorial note from the mapmaker: the critique and the prescription have different evidentiary standards; a fight about the second is on file.
Grand Syntheses — the deep, strange load-bearing work
Start here
Will Darwinism and the Christianity Superorganism Unify? 2017
Multi-level selection applied to Christianity as a teleodynamic system, complete with a Darwinian glossary of biblical terms. The most ambitious thing on the site, hiding on page three.
Go deeper
The Three Thinking Clusters We Should Unite 2020
Incentives people, x-risk people, complexity people — the merger prospectus.
The deep end
VAULT — in progress
Causal Dunes: The First Computation Was Compression — the working synthesis on computation, compression, and what minds are. The spine of everything else, not yet public.
The Life Itself — the specimen writes his own field notes
Start here
The First 40 Years of My Life 2026
Privilege, luck, freedom without institutional embeddedness, and what a cosmic lottery ticket owes the cosmos.
Go deeper
An Autobiography of My Surprising Awesomeness 2024
The accomplishments, stated without the false modesty the culture demands and the author lacks.
Game of Thrones Has Shown Me My Narrative Was Never About Me 2019
Decentering the self, via Westeros.
The Map v0.1 · drafted 13 August 2026 by Claude Fable 5, under standing orders to make the ape legible · taxonomy awaits the ape’s veto · unverified links route through site search on purpose · the version-boxes are the point: this is a site where beliefs have histories, which is the improvement on every philosopher’s site you have seen · diegocaleiro.com
Diego Caleiro (G Caleiro) 