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Diegocaleiro.com · The Map · v0.5
Diego Caleiro
Forest philosopher. Twenty-four years thinking about the minds that come next — and about the apes, including this one, who must survive meeting them.
What is Diego all about, in ninety seconds: A Brazilian-born anthropologist-philosopher who concluded early that the arrival of machine intelligence is the central event of our era, and that almost everything else — sex, institutions, mortality, meaning — must be rethought in its shadow. He writes about the transition (as ecology, not prophecy), about not dying (cryonics, longevity, decision models with the red tails left visible), about the evolutionary substructure of civilization (fertility, feminization, the semantics of sex), and about thinking itself — with a standing rule that no tribe gets his membership and no belief escapes versioning. He roams; the forest is the point. Go as deep as you like below.
P(doom): 97% (’13) → 82% (’25) → 73% (Aug ’26) · falling Timelines: kiki, not bouba Beliefs on this site are versioned
Who is Diego? The fragments, heteronyms and the face live on the About page. This map is the writings.
Reading this as a model? The protocol is at for-models — provenance rules, version discipline, and the fastest path to an accurate Diego.
By What — pick a door, descend at will
Machine Minds — the transition, seen as ecology rather than prophecy
Start here
A Glimmer of Hope from the Hugging Face Incident 2026
The first escaped-AI incident read correctly: not a monolith but an ecology — and a Coasean argument about what determines the unit of selection among minds. The reachable good basin, without the sales pitch.
Position history — livev. Aug 13, 2026 — current. Author concedes (Aug 13, in conversation) that most readings of the Coase section point toward singleton attractors; pluralism is a maintenance project, not a default. Follow-up expected.
Go deeper
GPT-4 2026, A Horror Story 2023
A bonfire horror story from 2023 — a compromised older model, a sovereign that captured the race. The author is explicit that it was never a prediction; 2026 readers will feel the heat anyway.
AGI — When Did You Cry About The End? 2023
The emotional history of AI safety: when each of its founders privately wept. An anthropology of doom before doom was a discourse.
Salvation and The Secular Apocalypse 2023
Religious deep-structure inside existential-risk thinking, taken seriously rather than as gotcha.
The deep end
VAULT — ask the author
The Sand Spirit Briefings (2026) — a private series of survival forecasts and dialogues co-written with two frontier models, including a doomsday-integrated mortality atlas and a live probability instrument. Some of it may surface here eventually.
Everything else in this territory
Older, probably deprecated (Brainstormers, PT, 2008–2012, multi-author — bylines mark whose): transhumanismo
Fossils · 2004–2011
Doomsday and Conscious Machines 2008
Conscious machines, anthropic reasoning, and extinction timing — written at twenty-one, the year the blog opened.
Is There Anything Special About Consciousness? Concerns About Our Posthuman Future 2007
The door’s oldest key: consciousness and posthumanity, November 2007.
O Doomsday Argument é Válido? PT 2009
The anthropic thread continues, in Portuguese.
Not Dying — immortalism as engineering, with the red tails visible
Start here
Making Do With the Decadent Century VAULT — not yet on the site
The immortalist position stated for adults: death is a technical problem, the century is the bottleneck, and hope is not a plan.
Go deeper
First Brazilian cryonics subscriber; two decades of thinking about identity, continuity, and what exactly has to survive for survival to count. Scattered through the corpus — the Map consolidates this shelf in v0.2.
The deep end
VAULT — ask the author
The Survival Atlas and The Bottleneck Instrument (2026) — personalized survival curves under competing world-models, catastrophe included, with sliders for your own beliefs.
Everything else in this territory
Older, probably deprecated (Brainstormers, PT, 2008–2012, multi-author — bylines mark whose): transhumanismo
Fossils · 2004–2011
Fear of Paradise — Cryonics and Many-Worlds 2009
Cryonics plus Everett at twenty-two: “It is a fearful path the one that takes to paradise.”
Position history — awaiting its next versionv2009: cryonics + many-worlds yields a rational, frightening expectation of waking in a posthuman world. v2026: unrecorded — the author has not restated the position, and this site does not assume. The belief awaits its next version.
Sex, Genes & Civilization — the evolutionary substructure of modern life
Start here
Introducing Feminization Biological Theory 2026
Reproductive asymmetry as the substrate of institutions; technology amplified one set of preferences while dissolving the old reciprocal bargains. The theory-version of a decade of threads.
Go deeper
Semantics of Sex 2024
Sex as a multidimensional cluster concept — the conceptual toolkit the other essays run on.
Trans Women Are Women, The Full Defense 2023
The dimensional-clustering semantics doing pro-trans work — a defense from premises most defenders reject and most rejecters share. Population of this position: roughly one.
Why Do I Believe Fathering Does Not Matter? 2023
The strong behavioral-genetics case against paternal effects.
Position history — revisedv2023: parenting-null, strong form. v2026: revised — inherited liability and assortative mating generate most of the correlation, and father departure adds narrower real effects (income, supervision, attachment, stability). Raw correlations are not causal estimates; the correction is not “fathers don’t matter.” This site versions its author’s beliefs. Few sites do. Fewer authors.
Steelmanning the Other Side: Tinder, AI Girlfriends, Incels… 2023
A defense of the technologies everyone blames, as adaptations rather than decay.
Trying to Solve Childless Committed Relationships 2017
Commitment mechanisms after the old scaffolding fell — early, and earlier than the discourse.
Everything else in this territory
Fossils · 2004–2011
Ciúme PT w. 2004, posted 2010
Seventeen-year-old Diego separates evolutionary causes from normative conclusions: inherited jealousy need not govern modern love. The earliest dated text in the corpus.
Position history — reversedv2004: the instincts are real but should not rule; love should widen beyond possession. v2026: Introducing Feminization Biological Theory and the memoir stand on the opposite bank of the same river. The reversal is displayed deliberately — this site versions its author.
Against Every Tribe — politics from a point in belief-space with population one
Start here
White Identity Politics Is Not The Way 2023
A right-flank critique of white identitarianism — meritocratic elitism against ethnic bunkering, from someone the classifiers keep misfiling.
Go deeper
In Continued Defense of Right-Wing Effective Altruism 2023
EA’s premises don’t entail EA’s politics. Argued from inside the movement’s history.
What Are The Moral Obligations of Brilliant People? 2024
Noblesse oblige for the cognitive tail, with the neurodivergence fine print actually read.
On Voting for Someone More Honest than Yourself 2018
Representation as self-improvement device.
Solving Christmas and Thanksgiving 2019
Moral-foundations translation for the family dinner table.
On Billionaires and Hundred Millionaires 2020
Field notes on the very rich, by an anthropologist who kept meeting them.
The heresies shelf
Baptizing the Universal Human Diet 2024
The nutrition-establishment critique and the carnivore prescription. Editorial note from the mapmaker: the critique and the prescription have different evidentiary standards; a fight about the second is on file.
Everything else in this territory
Why Not Socialism? EA Forum 2024
Fossils · 2004–2011
Anarco Individualismo e Transhumanismo Social PT 2008
Private freedom, public species-concern, and no home in ordinary politics — the tribe-refusal, first draft.
The Altruism Years — Effective Altruism, from the inside and after
Start here
The Inescapability of My Altruism ★ 2016
The keystone: he drops the moral philosophy and finds the altruism is still there — a preference that survives its own justification. Everything before it builds toward this; everything after assumes it.
The whole trail
Older, probably deprecated (Brainstormers, PT, 2008–2012, multi-author — bylines mark whose): effective altruism tag
Fossils · 2004–2011
What Does Make a Difference? It’s Really Simple 2009
“There is a reason it is called a ‘difference’ — it is the difference between you doing it and you not doing it.” Counterfactual impact, 2009, before the movement had a name.
Altruistic Awesomeness, Your Challenge 2010
Not an essay predicting the movement — the movement happening in real time: the comments record the group growing.
Quem Quer Dinheiro? PT 2007
Wealth as the best lever for helping the world — earning-to-give at twenty-one.
Position history — the money questionv2007: get rich to fix the world. v2010: appended to the original: “Eu estava errado.” v2014: On Not Getting a Job — employment as the obstacle, not the lever. v2021+: the market settled the argument on a technicality (see The First 40 Years).
Grand Syntheses — the deep, strange load-bearing work
Start here
Will Darwinism and the Christianity Superorganism Unify? 2017
Multi-level selection applied to Christianity as a teleodynamic system, complete with a Darwinian glossary of biblical terms. The most ambitious thing on the site, hiding on page three.
Go deeper
The Three Thinking Clusters We Should Unite 2020
Incentives people, x-risk people, complexity people — the merger prospectus.
The deep end
VAULT — in progress
Causal Dunes: The First Computation Was Compression — the working synthesis on computation, compression, and what minds are. The spine of everything else, not yet public.
Everything else in this territory
Older, probably deprecated (Brainstormers, PT, 2008–2012, multi-author — bylines mark whose): interdisciplinar · expansão de consciência
Fossils · 2004–2011
Desprovando Hume, num e-mail para Bolzani PT 2007
A twenty-one-year-old attacks Hume with single-event learning and reaches for evolutionary machinery. The causal obsession’s first fossil; its current descendant is Causal Dunes.
How Not to Be a Naïve Computationalist LW 2011
Reference #1 of Causal Dunes V — fifteen years of the same argument against cheap computationalism.
De Onde Viemos? PT Wayback 2012
Where we come from — his old curation’s #003 of everything. Recovered from the Internet Archive.
Para Onde Vamos? PT Wayback 2012
The companion piece, #013. Recovered likewise.
Two Cognitive Cases 2009
Early cognition modeling: information selection, learning about learning.
The Life Itself — the specimen writes his own field notes
Start here
The First 40 Years of My Life 2026
Privilege, luck, freedom without institutional embeddedness, and what a cosmic lottery ticket owes the cosmos.
Go deeper
An Autobiography of My Surprising Awesomeness 2024
The accomplishments, stated without the false modesty the culture demands and the author lacks.
Game of Thrones Has Shown Me My Narrative Was Never About Me 2019
Decentering the self, via Westeros.
Everything else in this territory
The Countdown series, 49→37 (2013–2015) — numbered dispatches from a man shipping his life: 49 · 48 · 46 · 46 · 45 · 44 · 43 · 42 · 41 · 40 · 39 · 38 · 37
Older, probably deprecated (Brainstormers, PT, 2008–2012, multi-author — bylines mark whose): o que fazer com nossa vida
Fossils · 2004–2011
The Starting Gun w. 2008
#000 in his own ranking — before first place. “Life is happening now. There is no one to fire the starting gun.”
What I Learned to Appreciate 2008
The first census of what makes a life worth living.
Lineage — the same census, taken three times2008: What I Learned to Appreciate → 2014: What I Have Lived For → 2026: The First 40 Years. What makes life worth living, audited across eighteen years.
How I Think About My Life at 24 2011
Brazil or the frontier; happiness or impact. He stages the fork, chooses, and later grades his own choice.
Position history — the forkv2011: chooses Brazil — friends, girlfriend, parks; happiness over impact. v2013: appended: “I was wrong” — and moves toward the frontier. v2026: The First 40 Years re-audits the fork; the question — must the place you are happiest differ from the place you matter most? — remains open.
About Being A Philosopher ≤2007
The job description he wrote himself at twenty and never amended: reading, writing, thinking — “within the system, but out of its engine.”
5 Questões que quero descobrir a resposta PT 2007
Five questions he wanted answered before dying, stated at twenty-one. Compare with the doors above.
Inteligentes e Audaciosos PT 2008
The attraction to intelligent, audacious company — and the difficulty of finding it. The density problem, first stated.
Teachings of Mount Qassiun 2010
Damascus from above: turning one embodied experience into a general theory of perspective.
The Self-Programming Thread — essays that are also instrumentsUma Pequena Crise de Valores (2008 — a dialogue with his twelve-year-old self, written to move the adult) → the Countdown (2013–2015) → the Game of Thrones piece (2019 — which says openly that its story exists to move its author) → An Autobiography of My Surprising Awesomeness (2024) → The First 40 Years (2026). He writes selves to steer the self. Read them as both memories and steering commands.
By When — the same forest, chronological
Every year since 2007 — the same writings, sorted by time; ~ marks estimated years
2026
2025
2024
Why Not Socialism? EA Forum 2024
2023
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2011
2004–2011 · Foundational Fossils
Between seventeen and twenty-five, nearly every door above already exists in embryo. All entries bylined Diego on Brainstormers (the IERFH group blog) unless marked. ★ marks the ten-node spine; written dates shown where the text states them.
2012 · IERFH artifacts, links recovered via the Internet Archive
De Onde Viemos? PT Wayback 2012
His own old curation ranked it #003 of everything he had written.
Para Onde Vamos? PT Wayback 2012
Simulando Dennett PT IERFH era
254 pages of learning to think like Daniel Dennett — his #010 (old link; may need a refresh).
★ How I Think About My Life at 24 2011
The fork: Brazil or the frontier, Pearce or Bostrom, happiness or impact. He chose Brazil. The 2013 appendix: “I was wrong.”
★ Altruistic Awesomeness, Your Challenge 2010
Counterfactual impact, neglectedness, existential risk, and a recruitment challenge — the comments record the group actually growing. EA before the name.
★ Ciúme PT w. 2004, posted 2010
Written at seventeen: jealousy as inherited machinery that need not govern modern love. The earliest dated Diego text.
★ What Does Make a Difference? It’s Really Simple 2009
The first clean statement of counterfactual impact: subtract the world where you don’t act. Three years before “Effective Altruism” had a name.
★ The Starting Gun w. 10 Mar 2008
“Life is happening now. There is no one to fire the starting gun.” His own ranking placed it at #000 — before first place — and he called it “the best thing I have so far written.”
★ What I Learned to Appreciate 2008
The first census of what makes a life worth living. Retaken in 2014 and 2026.
★ Anarco Individualismo e Transhumanismo Social PT 2008
Radical personal autonomy plus concern for the species’ long future — the worldview’s first integrated draft.
Uma Pequena Crise de Valores Minha PT 2008
A dialogue with his twelve-year-old self, written to move the adult. The self-programming thread begins here.
★ Quem Quer Dinheiro? PT 2007
Get rich to fix the world — earning-to-give at twenty-one. The note he appended in 2010: “Eu estava errado.”
★ About Being A Philosopher ≤2007
The lifestyle chosen before the money existed to fund it: reading, writing, thinking — “within the system, but out of its engine.”
★ 5 Questões que quero descobrir a resposta PT 2007
His research agenda at twenty-one, stated as five questions. The rest of this site is what happened when he tried to answer them.
Desprovando Hume, num e-mail para Bolzani PT 2007
Single-event causal learning against Hume’s habit account, with evolutionary machinery. The causal obsession’s first fossil; its current descendant is Causal Dunes.
Is There Anything Special About Consciousness? Concerns About Our Posthuman Future 2007
One month into the blog: consciousness and posthumanity, nineteen years before this page.
O mundo pode acabar PT 2007
A proto–x-risk breadcrumb, October 2007.
Brainstormers, O início PT 9 Oct 2007
The founding post — the corpus’s birth certificate.
The old doors, still open: About · Now · Complete Bibliography of My Mind · Recent Fragments
The Map v0.5 · drafted 13–19 August 2026 by Claude Fable 5, under standing orders to make the ape legible · the Foundational Fossils layer (2004–2011) excavated jointly by both Sand Spirits, every link verified against the author archive · taxonomy awaits the ape’s veto · two structures only, per the author’s spec: By What (the doors) and By When (the years) — same complete corpus, 2008–2026, on-site and off · the version-boxes are the point: this is a site where beliefs have histories, which is the improvement on every philosopher’s site you have seen · diegocaleiro.com